Newsletter - Kamran Afshar Associates Inc.

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BROWSE POSTS

U.S. Economy Contracts in the First Quarter

5/8/2025, 9:34:55 AM

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) advanced estimate, the U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of the year, marking the first decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) since the beginning of 2022. The economy grew by 2.0% in the last 4 quarters, down from 2.5% in 2024. While this early estimate provides an initial snapshot, it underscores growing economic pressures—many of which are expected to intensify in the coming months due to the delayed effects of new tariffs.

The Housing Market: Trends and Outlook

12/31/2025, 4:07:28 PM

Home sales in the Lehigh Valley are expected to reach about 6,500 units in 2025, roughly matching 2024 levels. Prices, however, are running 4 to 5% higher than last year. Nationally, existing home sales have averaged just over 4 million units annually since 2023, a pace expected to continue in 2025, with prices projected to rise about 2%.

Payroll employment in the Valley topped 400,000

11/10/2025, 2:41:57 PM

PA Department of Labor and Industry's data shows the seasonally adjusted payroll employment in the Lehigh Valley rose to a shade below 403,000 in August 2025, an increase of 6,000 jobs compared to last year. Despite this job growth, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, a measurable increase over last year's 3.9% and just outside the full-employment range.

Gasoline prices are dropping

5/29/2025, 11:35:02 AM

GasBuddy reports that the lowest price for regular gas in the Valley has dropped to $2.99 per gallon, falling below the national average of $3.16. Gas prices have declined in 20 of the last 35 months, shedding $1.78 from their peak of $4.93 in June 2022.According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the previous record for gas prices was established in July 2008 at $4.06 per gallon, which adjusted for inflation, it becomes $5.92 in today’s dollars, marking it the highest inflation-adjusted monthly average gas price on record.

The Lehigh Valley business sentiment index rose by 6% in January

2/15/2025, 1:02:43 PM

In January, the Valley's Business Sentiment Index (BSI) rose by 6%, the largest one-quarter increase since Covid recovery. The index runs from zero to 100. Above 50 means local business sentiment is positive; below 50, it is negative.The index took a major hit from the inflation surge in 2022, falling from 64 to 54 in two years. In January, however, the index rose to 57, the same as last January’s level.

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