Newsletter - Kamran Afshar Associates Inc.

Explore the latest Lehigh Valley Economic Review

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BROWSE POSTS

Highest inflation since 2008

7/19/2021, 11:06:39 AM

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the consumer price index (the CPI) rose by a huge 0.9% in June. Calculated at annual rate, that is, if this rate remained at the same level for a year, the inflation rate would become 11.4%! Adjusted for seasonality, inflation during the first half of this year is rising at an annual rate of 7.2%, an exceptionally high rate resulting from six high inflation rates over the first six months of this year. The inflation rate for the last 12 months was 5.4%. This is the highest 12-month inflation since August 2008.

Payroll employment rose by 559,000 jobs in May

6/17/2021, 3:11:57 PM

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 559,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were created in the country. This is the fifth increase in employment in as many months; we are, however, still 7.6 million jobs short of the pre-pandemic level. Considering that at the beginning of the shutdown, we lost 25 million jobs, we are clearly improving. The unemployment rate spiked close to 15% in April 2020, and it has been declining since. It dropped to 5.8% for May, almost a whole percentage point below its December level.COVID-19 initially caused the loss of more full-time jobs in two months than in 24 months during the Great Recession.

Retail Sales dropped 1.3% in May

6/15/2021, 5:19:24 PM

Retail sales dropped a slight 1.3% in May; however, it is not only well above last year's level, it is also 20.7% above May 2019 level. Clearly, the stimulus package is still impacting the economy. More than two-thirds of our economy is consumer expenditures, and retail sales are a very good indicator of how much consumers spend.

Consumer sentiment recovered some of its May losses May in early June

6/14/2021, 3:43:28 PM

The Early June data shows Consumer Sentiment Index has recovered some of its losses in May. According to the University of Michigan, the index dropped by 5.4% to 82.9 in May. Last month's decline was due to the highest expected inflation in the past decade. The index reflects consumers' propensity to purchase, from small items to major purchases like cars, homes, etc., and their financial situation.

General Overview

7/19/2021, 4:15:48 PM

The US economy's 1st quarter growth was much stronger than expected 6.4%. And most importantly, this is the first time since COVID that the GDP rose above its previous year's level. This is also the highest growth rate since the 2nd quarter of 2003. Over the last 4 quarters, the US economic growth is estimated at 0.4%, which its only claim to fame is that it is not negative!

Average sales price of existing homes is continuing to soar

6/28/2021, 8:51:36 PM

One of the side effects of the pandemic has been explosive growth in the number of houses sold and the accompanying skyrocketing of the average sales price of these houses. By May of last year, the number of existing homes sold in the country had dropped by 30%; however, despite this huge drop, the price of an average home sold adjusted for seasonality showed very little drop. The Lehigh Valley home sales volume dropped by 60%, twice as bad as the national average. However, local sales prices, similar to the national average, barely dropped.

The Valley has recovered 3 out of every 4 jobs it lost last spring

6/1/2021, 3:54:48 PM

In March and April of last year, the Valley lost 73,000 or 1 out of every 5 payroll jobs. By any account, this is a devastating blow. Thanks to the stimulus and transfer payment packages, the economy did not fall into depression. And as of the end of April 2021, three-quarters of the jobs lost have been recovered. However, we are still 23,000 payroll jobs below where we were before the pandemic.

Lehigh Valley's Inflation rate was 2.2% for 2020

6/1/2021, 11:14:52 AM

Lehigh Valley's inflation rate in 2020 was 2.2%, according to the Kamran Afshar Data Analytics Center (KADAC) @ DeSales University.

Lehigh Valley business sentiment index zoomed up by 13.1% in April

6/1/2021, 10:28:08 AM

The Lehigh Valley Business Sentiment Index, the BSI, recorded a 13.1% jump in one quarter in April 2021, its highest growth in 10 years. In response to the COVID-19 restrictions, the index plunged to an all-time low of 43.9, a drop of 30.4% in April 2020.