Newsletter - Kamran Afshar Associates Inc.

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BROWSE POSTS

The advanced estimate of the 2nd quarter GDP shows a decline

8/1/2022, 10:48:29 AM

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the advanced estimate of the US economic growth shows a decline of 0.9% during the 2nd quarter. The second quarter's actual growth was 7.8%; however, our current exceptionally high inflation exceeded the growth rate resulting in a decline. We must go back to the 1st quarter of 1981 to see a higher quarterly inflation.

Is a Recession on the horizon

7/14/2022, 2:40:29 PM

The most common question I am asked these days is whether we will have a recession. The simple answer is that recession is part of the business cycle, so eventually, of course, yes, but whether or not we see it this year is the subject of this short piece.

Federal Reserves raised its lending rate by another 75 bases points

9/28/2022, 1:17:43 PM

The FED announced that according to its dual statutory mandates of seeking price stability and maximizing employment, has raised its lending rate by 75 bases-points on September 21st; the 3rd 75 bases-points increase in a row. And this is after two smaller increases earlier. Over the last 6 months, the FED raised its interest rate from almost zero to more than 3%, with promises of more to come.

Monthly inflation at one-tenth of one percent in August

9/19/2022, 5:33:11 PM

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the consumer price index (the CPI) rose at a rate of 0.1% in August after adjustment for seasonality. It should be noted that the actual CPI, dropped slightly both in July and in August. However, inflation over the last 12 months is still an exceptionally high rate of 8.2% due to its rapid increase during the spring. The good news is that inflation over the last 3 months has dropped to 5.8% at annual rates.

2021 Year in Review

7/14/2022, 2:41:38 PM

2021 was a transitional year, as the economy, dampened by the COVID virus, took off with exceptional growth thanks to a new vaccine and a significant infusion of government transfer payments to individuals.

Payroll employment rose by 210,000 in November

7/14/2022, 2:42:45 PM

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, payroll jobs increased by a net 210,000 during November. This, coming on the heels of a whopping 613,000 jobs added in October, makes the total number of new payroll jobs created in the first 11 months of this year 6.1 million. It should be noted that the number of jobs created during November was larger than the net increase noted above by order of magnitudes. More than 4 million people quit their jobs during the month, and another 2 million were let go or otherwise separated from their jobs. So there were close to 6.5 million new hires in November.

Real Retail Sales rose by 9% over its last year’s level in February

7/14/2022, 2:43:39 PM

According to the Census Bureau's Advanced retail sales report, after adjustment for inflation, retail trade rose by 9.0% above its last year’s level in February, a very clear indicator of the US’s continuing strong economic growth.

Consumer sentiment index rose in December

7/14/2022, 2:44:07 PM

According to the University of Michigan, the consumer sentiment index rose by 5% in December, while still well below its June and July highs, it was a step in the right direction. COVID's Delta variant in summer and the Omicron variant in late fall and the persistent inflation dropped the consumer sentiment way down through November. However, the increase in December was expected, well more like hoped for, due to the over-reaction of the previous months.

The GDP dropped by 1.5% during the first quarter of 2022

7/14/2022, 11:27:02 AM

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US economic growth declined by 1.5% after adjustment for inflation during the 1st quarter. The first quarter’s actual growth was 6.5%; however, inflation ate all of that growth and then some. Despite the 1st quarter’s decline, the US economic growth over the 12 months ending in March 2022 was a strong 3.5%.