Newsletter - Kamran Afshar Associates Inc.

Explore the latest Lehigh Valley Economic Review

Click on each section to read more

BROWSE POSTS

The state of the Economy

11/1/2022, 1:47:01 PM

Are we in an economic boom, or in recession or something else, and where are we heading?
According to the published definitions for these economic conditions; a recession is a significant, widespread, and prolonged downturn in economic activity, typically associated with declines in economic activities, consumer demand, and employment. Inflation usually drops during recessions.
Economic boom, on the other hand is defined more as a widespread, and prolong upturn in economic activity, typically associated with increases in economic activities, consumer demand, and employment. Inflation usually rises during economic booms.

Is a Recession on the horizon

7/14/2022, 2:40:29 PM

The most common question I am asked these days is whether we will have a recession. The simple answer is that recession is part of the business cycle, so eventually, of course, yes, but whether or not we see it this year is the subject of this short piece.

Federal Reserves raised its lending rate by another 75 bases points

9/28/2022, 1:17:43 PM

The FED announced that according to its dual statutory mandates of seeking price stability and maximizing employment, has raised its lending rate by 75 bases-points on September 21st; the 3rd 75 bases-points increase in a row. And this is after two smaller increases earlier. Over the last 6 months, the FED raised its interest rate from almost zero to more than 3%, with promises of more to come.

Monthly inflation in September at 0.4%, higher than August

11/14/2022, 4:43:26 PM

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the consumer price index (the CPI) rose by 0.4% in October, lower than expected, making the overall inflation in the last 12 months 7.7%, which is still too high an inflation rate for the US. However, October's monthly inflation, if repeated, would result in an inflation rate of 5.4% and that would be great news, considering where we were.

2021 Year in Review

7/14/2022, 2:41:38 PM

2021 was a transitional year, as the economy, dampened by the COVID virus, took off with exceptional growth thanks to a new vaccine and a significant infusion of government transfer payments to individuals.

Payroll employment rose by 210,000 in November

7/14/2022, 2:42:45 PM

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, payroll jobs increased by a net 210,000 during November. This, coming on the heels of a whopping 613,000 jobs added in October, makes the total number of new payroll jobs created in the first 11 months of this year 6.1 million. It should be noted that the number of jobs created during November was larger than the net increase noted above by order of magnitudes. More than 4 million people quit their jobs during the month, and another 2 million were let go or otherwise separated from their jobs. So there were close to 6.5 million new hires in November.

Retail Sales rose higher than expected in October

11/21/2022, 3:53:03 PM

According to the Census Bureau’s Advanced retail sales report, retail trade rose 8.3% above last year’s level in October, a very clear indicator of consumers continuing to spend more. Even after adjusting for inflation, retail sales show a significant increase in October.

Consumer sentiment index rose in December

7/14/2022, 2:44:07 PM

According to the University of Michigan, the consumer sentiment index rose by 5% in December, while still well below its June and July highs, it was a step in the right direction. COVID's Delta variant in summer and the Omicron variant in late fall and the persistent inflation dropped the consumer sentiment way down through November. However, the increase in December was expected, well more like hoped for, due to the over-reaction of the previous months.

The advanced estimate of the 3rd quarter GDP at 2.6% is well above exceptions

11/1/2022, 2:15:43 PM

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the advanced estimate shows an inflation-adjusted 2.6% growth for the US economy during the 3rd quarter. This increase is larger than the two declines in the previous quarters leaving the economy slightly ahead of where it was at the end of last year. The 3rd quarter's actual growth was 6.7%; however, last summer’s exceptionally high inflation made the real growth only 2.6%.