Newsletter - Kamran Afshar Associates Inc.

Explore the latest Lehigh Valley Economic Review

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BROWSE POSTS

Lehigh Valley's economy grew by 0.8% in 2022

11/27/2024, 12:47:57 PM

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Lehigh Valley's GDP for 2022 rose to $54.3 billion. After adjustment for inflation, the Valley’s economic growth in 2022 was 0.8%. We have borrowed the term Gross Domestic Product from a nationwide concept to apply it to regional economies. The term basically means the total output of goods and services produced by labor and capital located, in this case, in the Lehigh, Northampton, Carbon, and Warren counties.

Car Sales are slightly down

10/26/2025, 3:51:30 PM

For most people, purchasing a vehicle represents the second-largest financial commitment after housing. While a home generally consumes the largest share of a household budget, cars follow closely, not just because of their upfront cost, but also because of the frequency with which they are replaced and the ongoing expenses they incur, which contribute to the long-term cost of car ownership. Unlike homes, which usually appreciate, vehicles steadily depreciate, turning them into ongoing liabilities.

Are we leaving this $34 trillion and rising national debt to our children to pay?

4/8/2024, 2:54:38 PM

The national debt is now at $34 trillion and appears to continue to rise for the foreseeable future. This puts the national debt at 121% of the GDP, which is huge but below its record high of 133% in the 2nd quarter of 2020. And while 2020’s Covid emergency made it an exception, national debt did not exceed 121% of the GDP even during WWII. Carrying debt creates several issues, the most pressing one being interest payment.

September Retail Sales Update

11/30/2025, 3:44:40 PM

Retail sales increased by 4% in September compared to the same month last year. However, after adjusting for inflation, the actual growth was only 1%. This distinction is important: while the overall growth figure appears strong, the volume of goods and services purchased grew only slightly when removing the impact of rising prices.

Payroll employment has been almost unchanged since July.

12/23/2025, 10:18:28 AM

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), payroll employment growth—which averaged between 150 to 250,000 jobs per month before the pandemic—has slowed to just 64,000 in November, after dropping by 105,000 in October. Since July, payroll employment has increased by a total of 41,000, which is only a third of 1%, the slowest growth rate outside a recession in this century.

The FED in a fog: The rate cut paradox

12/15/2025, 4:21:32 PM

The Federal Reserve (FED) has lowered its interest rate by a quarter of a percent three times during the fall, mirroring the same actions taken last year. Initially, these reductions led to a drop in interest rates; however, by January of this year, following three rate cuts by the FED in the fall of 2024, 10-year bond rates were 75 basis points higher than before the FED began its rate reductions. This year, similar to last year, rates initially dropped but have since started to rise again.

Inflation rose to 2.9% in August

9/16/2025, 2:44:23 PM

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the seasonally adjusted consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.4% in August, significantly higher than the 0.2% average monthly increase observed during the first 7 months of this year. Inflation over the last 12 months stood at 2.9%, the highest for the year. And this happened despite an almost 7% drop in gasoline prices, which historically has a very high correlation with inflation.

2024, Year in Review

1/29/2025, 3:03:33 PM

The economy grew at an annual rate of 2.6% during the first three quarters of 2024. Based on current data, last year’s economic growth is expected to be around 2.7%, which is better than the average for this century. The average unemployment rate for 2024 was 4%, well below this century’s average. The Valley’s average unemployment rate during the first 11 months of last year was 3.7%, yet another lowest for the century. Technically speaking, the economy is in a good place.

Consumer Sentiment Falls by 5% in August

8/22/2025, 4:22:05 PM

Consumer confidence fell in August. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index dropped 5% in August, leaving it 14% lower than a year ago and down 21% so far in 2025. Expectations for the economy’s future have tumbled 22% this year, with worries about personal finances, job security, inflation, and the business climate cutting across party lines. Inflation expectations for the next 12 months have eased to 5%, but more Americans now fear runaway prices: the share anticipating double-digit inflation has surged from 19% in December to 33% in June. At the same time, optimism about the job market is fading—30% fewer consumers expect unemployment to fall, while those bracing for higher joblessness have jumped 43%.

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