Newsletter - Kamran Afshar Associates Inc.

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BROWSE POSTS

Car Sales spiked in March

4/29/2025, 10:09:13 AM

For most people, purchasing a vehicle represents the second-largest financial commitment after housing. While a home generally consumes the greatest portion of a household budget, cars follow closely—not simply due to their upfront cost, but because of the frequency with which they are replaced and the continuous expenses they incur contribute to the long-term cost of car ownership. Unlike homes, which usually appreciate, vehicles steadily decline in worth, turning them into ongoing liabilities. In March, seasonally adjusted car and light truck sales spiked to nearly 1.5 million units, a significant 11% jump from February and 13% above their last year’s level. It appears that many people were trying to get it done before the tariffs went into effect, which are highly likely to raise car prices.

Are we leaving this $34 trillion and rising national debt to our children to pay?

4/8/2024, 2:54:38 PM

The national debt is now at $34 trillion and appears to continue to rise for the foreseeable future. This puts the national debt at 121% of the GDP, which is huge but below its record high of 133% in the 2nd quarter of 2020. And while 2020’s Covid emergency made it an exception, national debt did not exceed 121% of the GDP even during WWII. Carrying debt creates several issues, the most pressing one being interest payment.

Retail Sales picked up just before tariffs

5/19/2025, 3:18:09 PM

Ahead of upcoming tariffs, retail sales jumped 5.2% year-over-year in March—double 2024’s 2.6% growth rate. This surge likely reflects consumers accelerating purchases, especially of durable goods, to avoid expected price hikes once the tariffs are fully implemented.

Monthly Job Gains have dropped significantly

9/11/2025, 10:48:35 AM

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), payroll employment growth—which averaged between 150,000 to 250,000 jobs per month before the pandemic—has slowed to just 22,000 in August. The June and July data were revised down for a total of 21,000. The monthly revisions are normal as many businesses and government agencies return their surveys late. These surveys are then added to the rest for the month and recalculated, thus the need for revision almost every month.

The FED dropped its rate by a quarter of a percent

9/22/2025, 3:52:55 PM

For the first time this year, the FED cut its rate by a quarter of a percent. The FED’s dual mandate is to establish the highest level of sustainable employment without triggering inflation. However, reducing inflation and increasing employment require contradictory remedies, often creating a dilemma for the FED. To increase employment, the FED has to lower interest rates so that companies can borrow at a lower rate and hire more people. However, lower interest rates and higher employment also encourage more spending, which usually raises inflation, thus the dilemma.

Inflation rose to 2.9% in August

9/16/2025, 2:44:23 PM

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the seasonally adjusted consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.4% in August, significantly higher than the 0.2% average monthly increase observed during the first 7 months of this year. Inflation over the last 12 months stood at 2.9%, the highest for the year. And this happened despite an almost 7% drop in gasoline prices, which historically has a very high correlation with inflation.

2024, Year in Review

1/29/2025, 3:03:33 PM

The economy grew at an annual rate of 2.6% during the first three quarters of 2024. Based on current data, last year’s economic growth is expected to be around 2.7%, which is better than the average for this century. The average unemployment rate for 2024 was 4%, well below this century’s average. The Valley’s average unemployment rate during the first 11 months of last year was 3.7%, yet another lowest for the century. Technically speaking, the economy is in a good place.

Consumer Sentiment Falls by 5% in August

8/22/2025, 4:22:05 PM

Consumer confidence fell in August. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index dropped 5% in August, leaving it 14% lower than a year ago and down 21% so far in 2025. Expectations for the economy’s future have tumbled 22% this year, with worries about personal finances, job security, inflation, and the business climate cutting across party lines. Inflation expectations for the next 12 months have eased to 5%, but more Americans now fear runaway prices: the share anticipating double-digit inflation has surged from 19% in December to 33% in June. At the same time, optimism about the job market is fading—30% fewer consumers expect unemployment to fall, while those bracing for higher joblessness have jumped 43%.

U.S. Economy Contracts in the First Quarter

5/8/2025, 9:34:55 AM

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) advanced estimate, the U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of the year, marking the first decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) since the beginning of 2022. The economy grew by 2.0% in the last 4 quarters, down from 2.5% in 2024. While this early estimate provides an initial snapshot, it underscores growing economic pressures—many of which are expected to intensify in the coming months due to the delayed effects of new tariffs.

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