Newsletter - Kamran Afshar Associates Inc.

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BROWSE POSTS

The housing market is in rapid transition

7/25/2022, 11:39:19 AM

The housing market, after initially crashing, went through explosive growth during the pandemic. The number of houses sold nationally dropped to 4 million at annual rates at the beginning of the covid pandemic and then rose to 6.6 million, more than a million units above its pre-pandemic level, and all of this transition took only 8 months. Unlike sales volume, prices didn't drop at the beginning of the pandemic; however, they happily joined in the rapid increase in volume, rising from $316 to $344,000.

The Valley has recovered 8 out of every 10 payroll jobs it lost last year

7/14/2022, 2:47:14 PM

In March and April of last year, the Valley lost 72,000 or 1 out of every 5 payroll jobs it had. By any account, this was a devastating blow. Thanks to the stimulus and transfer payment packages, the economy did not fall into a depression. And as of the end of September 2021, 79% of the payroll jobs lost were recovered, placing total local employment still 4.3% short of its pre-pandemic level, slightly behind the national average, which is only 3.3% down.

Where are gasoline prices going?

7/14/2022, 4:44:03 PM

As of this writing (7/8/22), the price of regular gas in the Valley is around $4.45, lower than the national average of $4.75, which itself is down from its record high of $5, established during the second week of June. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the previous record was established in July 2008 at $4.06, which in today’s dollars would be $5.40, still the highest inflation-adjusted average monthly gas price. Unlike now, in 2008, no major war was going on, but we experienced a record-high gasoline price alongside record-high oil prices of $134; calculated in today's dollars, it would have been $177! And all of this as the Great Recession was starting to get really bad. No surprise that oil price collapsed to $41 by the end of 2008. Gasoline prices followed oil’s downward spiral, dropping to $1.70 by December 2008.

The Lehigh Valley business sentiment index fell by a large 7.8% in July

8/5/2022, 12:41:25 PM

The July survey of Lehigh Valley businesses recorded a significant 7.8% drop in the Lehigh Valley Business Sentiment Index, the BSI, between the 1st and the 2nd quarters of 2022. The index now at 59 is below the previous 5 quarters. However, it is still 19% higher than its 1st quarter of 2021. The Lehigh Valley Business Sentiment Index, the BSI, is based on the results of the Greater Lehigh Valley Chamber of Commerce-Kamran Afshar quarterly survey of local businesses, which has been conducted since 1998.

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